Explore how agricultural productivity has changed—and will continue to change—due to climate change. Use the controls below to switch between observed (historical) and projected (future) changes, and to toggle between absolute and percentage metrics.

Currently viewing: Projected change in agricultural productivity under IPCC climate projections (SSP5-8.5)SSP5-8.5 is a high-emissions pathway from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, assuming continued fossil fuel reliance. We use this scenario because it is the only one whose projections are consistent with the magnitude of agricultural changes already observed since 1981–2000.. Use the slider to explore different time horizons. Values represent the change in the number of people that can be fed per grid cell, relative to the 2001–2020 baseline.
Learn more about IPCC climate scenarios →
Observed (2001–2020) Projected (2021–2100)
Absolute Change Percentage Change
Change from 2001–2020 to 2041–2060
People Fed Yearly – Absolute Change
<-80k
-80k
-50k
-10k
-1k
0
1k
10k
50k
80k
>80k